It’s pretty clear by now that app-based gambling is here to stay. Most often, this is viewed through the lens of sports, and it’s easy to see why. Sports have an in-built and consistently passionate fanbase and round-the-clock news networks dedicated to their scrutiny. However, what if this wasn’t just limited to sports? What if; we could bet on war?
Yes, you read that correctly. Yes, I’m serious. Cashualty will bring all the convenience and fun of sports betting in our post-2018 world, in a totally new (read: free from legacy competitors) arena. Sharpen your pitchforks or grab your checkbooks as I’ll go over why Cashualty will take the world by desert storm!
Essentially how Cashualty will work is that the UN would serve as a scoreboard. Most armed conflicts will have the UN coming right out and providing their estimates as to the number of casualties, destroyed armored units, infrastructure sabotaged, refugees displaced, etc. This will be the source of information used as the countries participating in the armed conflict have a propaganda incentive to fudge their numbers in a way that makes their governments look good.
There’s a lot of variables and moving parts with armed conflicts, hence giving them a ton of options when it comes to betting. Casualties sustained by either side (or both) by a certain deadline would be the most entry-level line to bet on. Rather than a spread, the bettors would be betting against whether the casualty figures would be within the margin of error calculated by so-called experts (eww…pundits). Very specific casualties can be bet on as well; betting on the life expectancies of the heads of state, generals, or guerilla leaders involved in the conflict will be an option. Territory captured, by either specific locations or square kilometers, by the participating nations within a certain deadline are also fertile grounds for staking some dollars.
However, that is not all that can be gambled on. Economic sanctions levied is another area of war that our beloved customers can plunk down their hard-earned dollars on. Which nations join in on the sanctions and by what date are pretty objective measures to bet on. Likewise, Cashualty will be happy to take bets on who cuts off humanitarian aid (and by when) to the participating nations.
Speaking of aid, which nations pledge military support would also be open to wagers. More specifically, the aid this form takes could become more granular. One example is betting whether one nation overtly deploys troops by a certain date would be a betting line, as would be which nations merely send weapons and munitions (again, by a certain date).
But why stop there, when we could bet in the moment? If it’s one thing that the Arab Spring movement of 2011 taught us, it’s the power of social media feeds from the people on the ground. Twitter in particular was a gold mine of information and videos of the chaos unfolding as it was happening. Constant monitoring and at-the-moment reporting would enable Cashualty to give push notifications to customers. Something along the lines of Skirmish breaking out in Kharkiv; Bet Now! This would be a profitable and effective way to pull gamblers in as it combines two sources of dopamine; gambling and smartphone addiction.
With that said, no conflict lasts forever, and the shooting eventually stops. Cashualty will also open betting lines on when the two nations will mutually agree to a ceasefire, and on when a treaty will be signed. Looking for more, my beloved parlay players? Well look no more, because terms of the deal will also be subject to wagering. Care to place a bet on stipulations such as Country X cannot join NATO or Country Y must pay war reparations for the damage they’ve caused? Cashualty is happy to take your wagers!
Potential Challenges
I’m truthfully not all that worried about potential international blowback. After all, what is the UN going to do; disband? Not a snowball’s chance in hell of that taking place. What’s next; all of mankind will uniformly embrace peace, coexistence and compassion? Yeah, that’s not gonna happen either. Will the UN stop issuing reports on armed conflicts solely to prevent my betting lines? I seriously doubt that. The idea has a built-in level of future-proofing that will make any savvy investor swoon.
I’m not even worried about regulations from Drunk Uncle Sam either. The Supreme Court made it abundantly clear that gambling belongs to the states and not the fucking Feds. Given that gambling regulations are mostly decentralized and exist at the state level, the true overhead lies in retaining an in-house legal team to ensure we stay within the bounds of the laws of each state that allows us in.
I won’t lie; the biggest hurdle is moral outrage from non-players. While the old adage of there’s no such thing as bad publicity is true to a certain extent, some proactive action will be needed. I’ll need to hire a clever marketing and public relations team to help divert the discussion away from morality. One way of doing this is to heavily promote early-adopters who win large sums of money; this was a common tactic used by sports betting companies post Murphy v. NCAA.
Future State
Problem gamblers who bet large sums of money would of course be treated like VIPs. Sharpen your pitchforks all you want, but this is a favorite tactic of casinos, and the sports betting apps are known to do this as well. Memorabilia from the conflict zone of the players preference (as determined by their gambling history) can be collected and flown to the VIP. Examples of this include demilitarized weapons/spent shell casings (within the bounds of the law, of course!), worn battle flags, patches, and used helmets are all low-cost yet authentic ways to drive continued engagement. This would not only entice problem gamblers to keep betting, it also has the potential to draw in history buffs and those hoping to enter the second-hand memorabilia market.
The trick is to dole out the smaller rewards to habitual gamblers to keep them engaged and pouring money into my app, particularly those on lengthy losing streaks. Maybe they lose $20,000 because Country X lost more men than the margin of error predicted, but scoring an authentic battle flag with a certificate of authenticity would do wonders to keep that bettor coming back. And to silence the critics; random rewards do indeed work; just ask Tony Hsieh.
Of course, there are differing levels of VIP status. Problem gamblers with particularly deep pockets, once Cashualty gets mega-profitable, would be flown out to the conflict zone, as much as relative safety permits. Note the term relative safety; it’ll be important to balance their visceral need for authenticity and engagement with relative safety; we can’t be getting our income sources needlessly blown up, can we?
Think about it; a long-fleeced customer VIP bettor would get to visit the troops on the ground, shake hands, learn names, and take a few selfies. This already happens when politicians want to swing by for a photo op, so I’m not really seeing an obstacle that would seriously prevent this from occurring. Besides, season ticket holders and other VIPs get to meet-and-greet players of professional sports teams. VIPs of concerts get to go backstage to hang out with the band. VIPs at the theatre get to attend dress rehearsals and similarly meet the stage actors. My grander point being is that VIP status buys access in other realms of entertainment, so I see no reason why war should be any different.
Localization efforts will also be needed. After all, I hope to capture a global audience, and hence the app would need to be available in multiple languages, prioritizing those of conflict zones such as Arabic, French, and Russian. Translating the app into languages of nations who have a strong gambling culture (Serbian and Mandarin, for example) would be the next priority.
Being able to bet in cryptos would be a great next step. The moral compass of the person who would gamble on armed conflicts is likely also the same person who is likely to own cryptos. Thus, accepting cryptos as payment would be a wise next step. Just as I described previously, getting your paycheck direct deposited into your gaming account is another major milestone for Cashualty.
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